Getting Back to the Fundamentals: Embracing the Essentials

Introduction:

Global temperatures are reaching unprecedented levels, as evident from the recent headlines about record-breaking heat. The Climate Reanalyzer website provides a visual representation of these temperatures, surpassing previous records. This resource, although new, highlights the salience and novelty of the situation. Human activities are the primary drivers behind global warming.

Full Article: Getting Back to the Fundamentals: Embracing the Essentials

Climate Deniers’ Misinformation Tactics Exposed as Global Temperatures Soar

In recent weeks, global temperatures have been reaching unprecedented levels, causing concern among climate scientists. The latest data from the Climate Reanalyzer website at the University of Maine reveals that daily temperatures in early July have exceeded previous record highs from August 2016. This alarming trend follows record-breaking ocean surface temperatures reported last month.

This new online resource, which was not available during the last record-breaking period in 2016, provides a clear visualization of the escalating temperatures. This combination of relevance and novelty has sparked concerns about the underlying cause of these patterns – human-driven global warming.

Understanding the Data

To comprehend global temperature trends, it’s important to note that all temperature data is derived from models, whether statistical or physical. There are no direct measurements of global temperature from satellites, weather stations, or individual observations. However, this does not undermine the usefulness of these temperature products.

In this particular case, the temperature data is generated by the NCEP CFS weather forecast model. It assimilates various in situ and satellite data every three hours, averaging the results over a day and the Earth’s surface. While these calculations accurately reflect the model’s output, they may not perfectly represent real-world conditions due to factors like resolution, model structure, and tuning.

Different temperature models may exhibit variations in absolute magnitude, as illustrated by the comparisons between various reanalysis models. Higher resolution models, for example, tend to have slightly cooler temperatures due to their ability to account for more detailed topography. Despite these differences, the monthly coherence among models remains high, though some variations may occur at the daily scale.

Seasonal Variation and Global Mean Temperature

It is well-established that the peak global temperature occurs during the Northern Hemisphere summer. This phenomenon may surprise some, considering the opposing seasonality in the Southern Hemisphere. However, the abundance of landmasses in the Northern Hemisphere plays a significant role. Land areas experience more significant seasonal variations compared to the ocean, resulting in a dominant influence on global temperature fluctuations.

Consequently, July and August typically record the warmest temperatures of the year. This pattern is consistent with the output of the CFS and ERA5 models. The GISTEMP product, which tracks temperature shifts since 1880, also reflects these monthly variations, displaying a consistent warming trend of approximately 1ºC per month since the late 19th century.

Station-based temperature products may lag behind reanalyses, but they generally follow the same patterns. Therefore, it is expected that June temperatures in NOAA, GISTEMP, and HadCRUT5 will set new records. The intensifying El Niño event in the tropical Pacific, amplifying ocean warming, further increases the likelihood of July and August also witnessing unprecedented temperatures. Consequently, the odds of 2023 becoming a record-breaking year are estimated at approximately 50%.

Debunking Climate Deniers’ Arguments

While some argue that there is no such thing as a global temperature, this standpoint is primarily a distraction technique employed by climate deniers. Contrary to their claims, global temperature is a well-defined concept for any two-dimensional field on Earth’s spherical surface.

Furthermore, the relevance of global mean temperature should not be dismissed. While people do not inhabit the global mean, it serves as an excellent predictor of local impacts related to heatwaves, intense rainfall, and drought intensity. Decades of research have established the strong correlation between global mean temperature and these local phenomena.

In conclusion, the climate is undeniably warming, evidenced by shattered temperature records and the increasingly tangible impacts. It is crucial to see past the attempts at obfuscation and misinformation employed by climate deniers, such as the recent claims in the Wall Street Journal. The urgent need for action to address climate change cannot be undermined.

Summary: Getting Back to the Fundamentals: Embracing the Essentials

The article discusses the recent record-breaking global temperatures and the impact of climate change. It explains how the data is derived from weather forecast models and discusses the coherence of different temperature products. The article also addresses climate deniers’ arguments and emphasizes the importance of recognizing the reality of climate change and its impacts.

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